Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d3f…d6e2 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$20 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.3% +18.8% 67% 50% +46.8%
≤30d 6 +31.3% +18.8% 67% 50% +46.8%
≤90d 6 +31.3% +18.8% 67% 50% +46.8%
all 6 +31.3% +18.8% 67% 50% +46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.8% 50% +46.8%
10% ← realistic here +7.4% 50% +32.7%
15% -2.9% 33% +19.9%
20% -12.5% 33% +8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$0 · ×391.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×783.35 per $1 lost it wins $783.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Down 47¢ 40¢ $140 $120 −$20 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$43 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$150 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $145 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $33 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $50 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $38 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $56 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $36 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.93 · official $119.93 (match) · 60 history records