Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d42…1f0c world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$5
other 19% +$1
politics 4% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 22 +90.8% +72.6% 27% 5% -10.1%
≤90d 22 +90.8% +72.6% 27% 5% -10.1%
all 36 +48.6% +34.5% 31% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.5% 3% -10.5%
10% +21.6% 3% -19.1%
15% +9.9% 3% -26.9%
20% -0.9% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +97% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage453d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 22 $2 $0 +10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $69 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $12 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $92 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $4 $0 +9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 22 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump remove Harvard tax exempt status? May 28 $8 $0 -0%
Fetterman out in May? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 23–30? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 25 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $4 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $36 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $38 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $38 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $23 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $20 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $43 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $43 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $26 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $42 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.92 · official $38.70 (match) · 115 history records