Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d42…5acc world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$18 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$5
sports 15% −$1
crypto 8% −$2
other 6% −$6
finance 5% −$2
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.8% -23.8% 9% 9% -25.1%
≤30d 11 -15.8% -23.8% 9% 9% -25.1%
≤90d 41 -12.3% -20.7% 32% 7% -16.2%
all 41 -12.3% -20.7% 32% 7% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 7% -16.2%
10% -28.3% 5% -24.3%
15% -35.2% 5% -31.6%
20% -41.5% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 88¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Yes 33¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Yes 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? No 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -44%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 +$8 +148%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 −$3 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $8 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $7 $0 +5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 23 $4 −$2 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 22 $6 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 22 $10 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $3 +$1 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $15 +$1 +8%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 22 $3 $0 -6%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $15 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $19 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 20 $3 $0 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 -55%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 19 $5 −$1 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 17 $3 $0 +15%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 16 $8 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 16 $4 $0 -9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 16 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $4 $0 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $0 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No $4 42m
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No $5 43m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $4 49m
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $5 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 65¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 22¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $5 31h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals $1 43h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 59¢ $13 43h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals $2 43h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals $5 43h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $5 43h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 23¢ $5 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 19¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $4 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $4 3d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $5 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $5 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.03 · official $17.03 (match) · 147 history records