Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d42…eb8e sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,297 (+7%) realized +$1,061 · open +$236
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate72%90W / 35L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7,867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$100
14 days+$420
30 days+$859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$910
other 39% +$72
crypto 2% +$110
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -5.2% -14.2% 63% 56% -7.1%
≤30d 124 +4.3% -5.6% 72% 60% -2.7%
≤90d 124 +4.3% -5.6% 72% 60% -2.7%
all 125 +4.4% -5.6% 72% 59% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 59% -2.7%
10% -14.6% 42% -12.0%
15% -22.8% 29% -20.5%
20% -30.4% 21% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$58 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$7,867
Realized+$1,061
Unrealized+$236
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses90 / 35
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions8
Markets (closed)125 / 133
History coverage106d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $1,498 $2,224 +$725 (+48%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $812 $1,921 +$1,110 (+137%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $1,482 $967 −$516 (-35%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,032 $927 −$105 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $863 $673 −$190 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $903 $581 −$322 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $458 $568 +$110 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $583 $6 −$577 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 +$89 +174%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $81 +$19 +23%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $50 +$50 +100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $59 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $70 +$30 +43%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $50 +$50 +100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $82 +$18 +22%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $678 +$22 +3%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $340 +$160 +47%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $67 +$33 +49%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $80 +$20 +25%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $173 −$172 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $61 +$39 +64%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $179 +$21 +12%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $85 +$15 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $9 −$5 -50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $84 +$12 +14%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $83 +$17 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $60 +$11 +19%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $78 +$22 +28%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $69 −$68 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $94 +$6 +6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $83 +$17 +20%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $63 +$37 +59%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $83 +$17 +20%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $53 +$47 +89%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $70 −$1 -1%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $83 +$17 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $79 +$21 +27%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $74 +$7 +9%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $79 +$21 +27%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $84 +$16 +19%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $81 +$19 +23%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $72 +$28 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $61 +$39 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 36¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $58 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $81 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $50 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $43 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $70 7h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $82 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $678 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $340 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $173 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $74 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $67 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $179 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Norway 19¢ $5 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $9 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $96 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $85 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $84 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $71 4d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $61 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,866.62 · official $7,861.31 (match) · 421 history records