Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d43…0404 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized +$1 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$3
sports 46% −$1
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.2% -0.3% 65% 55% -6.1%
≤30d 22 +0.2% -9.4% 59% 50% -12.9%
≤90d 22 +0.2% -9.4% 59% 50% -12.9%
all 22 +0.2% -9.4% 59% 50% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 50% -12.9%
10% -18.0% 50% -21.2%
15% -25.9% 36% -28.8%
20% -33.2% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)22 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 93¢ 67¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 62¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $2 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $4 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.94 · official $17.94 (match) · 48 history records