Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2d44…7c18 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$29 (+23%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$62
other 34% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+62.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +80.1% +62.9% 100% 100% +59.9%
≤30d 2 +80.1% +62.9% 100% 100% +59.9%
≤90d 2 +80.1% +62.9% 100% 100% +59.9%
all 2 +80.1% +62.9% 100% 100% +59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.9% 100% +59.9%
10% +47.3% 100% +44.6%
15% +33.1% 100% +30.7%
20% +20.0% 100% +17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage4d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$28 +93%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 59¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.37 · official $41.37 (match) · 6 history records