Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2D 0x2d44…603b crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,640per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	5	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
≤90d	5	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
all	5	+0.1%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.4%	0%	-9.4%
10%	-18.1%	0%	-18.1%
15%	-26.0%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-33.3%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$2,009

Realized+$8

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$1,640

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20?	No	100¢	100¢	$1,367	$1,367	+$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$642	$642	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18?	Jun 18	$2,007	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17?	Jun 17	$2,005	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16?	Jun 16	$1,455	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?	Jun 15	$2,002	+$2	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14?	Jun 14	$2,000	+$2	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$1,367	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20?	BUY Yes	100¢	$642	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18?	BUY No	100¢	$2,007	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,005	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16?	BUY Yes	100¢	$1,455	3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?	BUY No	100¢	$2,002	4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14?	BUY No	100¢	$2,000	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,009.34 · official $2,008.66 (match) · 12 history records