Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d44…1d7c sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$772 (+16%) realized +$754 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$757
other 1% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.2% -3.0% 61% 61% +5.5%
≤30d 33 +7.2% -3.0% 61% 61% +5.5%
≤90d 33 +7.2% -3.0% 61% 61% +5.5%
all 33 +7.2% -3.0% 61% 61% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 61% +5.5%
10% -12.3% 58% -4.6%
15% -20.8% 45% -13.8%
20% -28.5% 42% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$52 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$754
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 80¢ $154 $172 +$18 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $35 +$19 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $36 +$55 +153%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $36 +$36 +101%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $438 +$209 +48%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $135 −$134 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1,734 +$445 +26%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $199 −$196 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $134 −$132 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $100 +$35 +35%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $37 +$39 +106%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $155 +$113 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $97 +$116 +120%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $100 −$3 -3%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $35 −$34 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $35 +$24 +67%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 +$41 +203%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $34 +$26 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $25 +$17 +68%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $34 +$18 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $35 +$25 +70%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $38 +$22 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $27 +$16 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $76 +$22 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $59 +$16 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $955 +$175 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $125 11m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $35 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi SELL 75¢ $90 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $71 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $36 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 29¢ $36 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100¢ $647 9h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 67¢ $438 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $135 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,179 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1,734 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $199 23h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $134 25h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges SELL Nuno Borges 86¢ $135 34h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Nuno Borges 63¢ $100 35h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $36 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $75 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $37 45h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $268 45h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $155 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $213 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $97 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $97 47h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $100 2d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $35 2d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $25 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.77 · official $170.69 (match) · 56 history records