Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d45…9d4f crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$165 (-7%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$645
sports 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -29.1% -35.8% 35% 35% -38.8%
≤30d 20 -29.1% -35.8% 35% 35% -38.8%
≤90d 20 -29.1% -35.8% 35% 35% -38.8%
all 20 -29.1% -35.8% 35% 35% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 35% -38.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.0% 30% -44.7%
15% -47.6% 30% -50.0%
20% -52.7% 30% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$101 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $444 +$250 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$203 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $392 −$392 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$39 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$25 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$39 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$22 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +16%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $64 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $287 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $344 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $27 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records