Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2D 0x2d46…d383 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$304 (-6%) realized −$304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$606
14 days+$560
30 days+$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$252
sports 32% +$101
politics 6% −$11
crypto 1% −$46
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +375.5% +330.2% 100% 100% +288.4%
≤30d 4 +256.6% +222.6% 75% 75% +210.4%
≤90d 9 +60.5% +45.2% 33% 33% -19.4%
all 45 +12.0% +1.3% 38% 33% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 33% -4.5%
10% -8.4% 31% -13.6%
15% -17.2% 31% -22.0%
20% -25.4% 31% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$102 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage270d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $46 +$254 +549%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $46 +$179 +388%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $92 +$174 +189%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $90 −$74 -82%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $180 −$180 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Apr 04 $45 −$45 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 Mar 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Mar 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-08? Feb 10 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $90 −$80 -89%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $180 −$150 -83%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $180 +$238 +132%
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $90 +$472 +524%
Will AS Roma vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Dec 01 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Nov 26 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $340 +$367 +108%
Will Leeds United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Nov 23 $135 −$135 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $100 +$144 +144%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? Nov 22 $70 +$91 +131%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $215 −$215 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Genoa end in a draw? Nov 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $105 +$54 +51%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Gambia win on 2025-10-10? Oct 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Oct 10 $50 −$35 -70%
Will Scotland vs. Greece end in a draw? Oct 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $30 +$4 +14%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-09-29? Oct 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will AS Roma vs. Lille end in a draw? Oct 04 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01? Oct 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Atalanta vs. Como end in a draw? Oct 04 $80 +$168 +209%
Tigers vs. Guardians Oct 01 $130 +$2 +2%
Red Sox vs. Yankees Oct 01 $180 +$317 +176%
Will Genoa vs. Lazio end in a draw? Sep 29 $170 −$121 -71%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $297 +$334 +113%
Will Lecce vs. Bologna end in a draw? Sep 28 $80 +$86 +108%
Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw? Sep 27 $80 +$155 +194%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Sep 27 $306 −$11 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 7m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $225 7m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $46 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 34¢ $92 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 9d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 57d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 57d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $90 69d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $90 69d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 72d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 38¢ $90 72d
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 22¢ $90 79d
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 30¢ $90 79d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 80d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 94d
Will SS Lazio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 100d
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $90 128d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $90 129d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $90 130d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 133d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 133d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 27¢ $90 133d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 33¢ $180 135d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 178d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 43¢ $180 181d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $418 190d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $180 190d
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $562 192d
Will SS Lazio win on 2025-12-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $90 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records