Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d47…9e80 world 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$3
politics 18% −$6
other 16% +$4
sports 12% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 24 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 75 +32.3% +19.7% 41% 8% -9.5%
all 99 +22.5% +10.9% 40% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 8% -9.7%
10% +0.3% 6% -18.3%
15% -9.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -18.3% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage540d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $36 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $79 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $75 +$5 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $138 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $37 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $69 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $71 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $10 −$2 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $13 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $30 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $65 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $59 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $119 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $29 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1 $0 +17%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $59 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $35 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $37 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $21 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $14 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $35 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $27 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $27 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $27 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $27 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $40 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.53 · official $0.00 · 363 history records