Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d4a…489d weather 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized −$5 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$36
other 4% −$6
sports 3% −$6
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.4% -17.1% 77% 77% -7.4%
≤30d 22 -8.4% -17.1% 77% 77% -7.4%
≤90d 22 -8.4% -17.1% 77% 77% -7.4%
all 22 -8.4% -17.1% 77% 77% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 77% -7.4%
10% -25.0% 14% -16.2%
15% -32.3% 5% -24.3%
20% -38.9% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)22 / 39
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? No 87¢ 100¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? No 90¢ 99¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? No 82¢ 87¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? No 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? No 90¢ 100¢ $22 $25 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? No 85¢ 100¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? No 82¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? No 87¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27? No 90¢ 96¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? No 90¢ 100¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? No 81¢ 65¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? No 84¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26? Jun 27 $5 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $10 12m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 87¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $14 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 85¢ $21 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $23 19h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $25 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 84¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 81¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? BUY No 87¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 82¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $15 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $7 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $5 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 84¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 82¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? BUY No 80¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 82¢ $5 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 81¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.51 · official $266.19 (match) · 56 history records