Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d4b…dd2e world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$204 (+7%) realized +$220 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$49
sports 4% −$11
crypto 0% +$3
politics 0% −$4
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 17% 17% -21.6%
≤30d 7 +4.7% -5.3% 29% 29% -16.1%
≤90d 32 -33.3% -39.6% 28% 19% -14.4%
all 32 -33.3% -39.6% 28% 19% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 19% -14.4%
10% -45.4% 19% -22.6%
15% -50.7% 16% -30.1%
20% -55.5% 16% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage70d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $507 $501 −$6 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $30 −$12 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $240 −$31 -13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$9 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $150 −$29 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $92 +$29 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $1 +$1 +121%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $39 +$25 +64%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 17 $6 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 8? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $34 −$7 -20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 09 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 8? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 09 $5 $0 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $41 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 09 $20 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -75%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Apr 08 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 08 $5 +$5 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $507 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $281 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $207 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $263 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 43¢ $265 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $240 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $83 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $225 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $556 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $22 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 48¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $259 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $258 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $262 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $60 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $66 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.57 · official $502.57 (match) · 122 history records