Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
2D 0x2d4b…ca7a world 774 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$315,540 (+115%) realized +$220,637 · open +$63,223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%286W / 357L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$129,332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,380
7 days+$23,470
14 days+$99,895
30 days+$101,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$118,751
politics 26% +$87,126
other 15% +$29,355
tech 3% −$567
finance 3% +$43,541
culture 3% −$1,141
economics 1% −$1,074
sports 1% +$7,803
crypto 0% +$721
weather 0% −$656
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.6% -11.0% 27% 27% +76.6%
≤30d 66 +55.0% +40.2% 38% 38% +132.0%
≤90d 250 +94.9% +76.4% 46% 46% +103.5%
all 643 +72.3% +55.9% 44% 44% +82.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.9% 44% +82.6%
10% +41.0% 44% +65.1%
15% +27.4% 44% +49.1%
20% +14.9% 43% +34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +125% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +72% · $-wt +102% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +65% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,166 vs −$316 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$129,332
Realized+$220,637
Unrealized+$63,223
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses286 / 357
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions203
Markets (closed)643 / 774
History coverage137d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 203 History 643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 11¢ 100¢ $5,086 $46,811 +$41,725 (+820%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 30¢ 96¢ $2,340 $7,572 +$5,232 (+224%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? No 30¢ 95¢ $2,404 $7,514 +$5,110 (+213%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 96¢ $2,640 $6,826 +$4,186 (+159%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 29¢ 100¢ $1,492 $5,126 +$3,634 (+244%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 13¢ 90¢ $728 $4,862 +$4,134 (+568%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 17¢ 99¢ $662 $3,863 +$3,201 (+484%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 15¢ 100¢ $400 $2,656 +$2,256 (+564%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 35¢ 92¢ $960 $2,513 +$1,553 (+162%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 16¢ 96¢ $417 $2,481 +$2,064 (+495%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 35¢ 100¢ $844 $2,431 +$1,587 (+188%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 44¢ 99¢ $960 $2,159 +$1,199 (+125%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 30¢ 97¢ $540 $1,775 +$1,235 (+229%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 30¢ $640 $1,452 +$812 (+127%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $487 $1,280 +$793 (+163%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 14¢ 34¢ $494 $1,223 +$729 (+148%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 37¢ 88¢ $480 $1,135 +$655 (+136%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 32¢ 21¢ $1,701 $1,123 −$578 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 94¢ $341 $1,112 +$770 (+226%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 26¢ 87¢ $320 $1,068 +$748 (+234%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 100¢ $536 $1,046 +$511 (+95%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 10¢ 100¢ $100 $1,001 +$901 (+901%)
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? No 36¢ 100¢ $360 $998 +$638 (+177%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 60¢ 72¢ $755 $904 +$149 (+20%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? No 16¢ 95¢ $146 $876 +$730 (+500%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $2,340 −$2,340 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 12 $484 −$484 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $7,252 −$7,252 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $377 −$332 -88%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Tony Thurmond advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $28 +$84 +300%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $3,995 −$3,995 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $240 −$240 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $492 +$808 +164%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $8,000 +$37,975 +475%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $304 +$382 +125%
Will The Left (Levica) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS) be part of the next Government Jun 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 05 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slove Jun 05 $20 +$104 +525%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 05 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 05 $16 +$31 +194%
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $356 −$354 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $583 −$583 -100%
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $976 +$1,531 +157%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $7 +$8 +122%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $9,318 +$9,791 +105%
Will Lee Jung-hyun win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Jun 04 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $240 +$260 +108%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $1,684 −$1,684 -100%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? Jun 01 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $435 −$435 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $731 +$2,120 +290%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $840 +$2,020 +240%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $995 +$3,266 +328%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $4,100 +$5,537 +135%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $2,837 +$19,511 +688%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,756 +$39,278 +682%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $284 +$195 +69%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $1,603 −$567 -35%
Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $5 +$8 +156%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 33¢ $160 31m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 33¢ $75 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $13 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $119 2h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $240 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $298 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $252 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $400 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $299 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 6¢ $1,120 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 8¢ $884 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 8¢ $80 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 14¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 14¢ $20 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 14¢ $778 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 8¢ $77 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 10¢ $11 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 10¢ $869 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 12¢ $800 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $300 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $426 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $214 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 11¢ $35 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 11¢ $43 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $400 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $300 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 4¢ $206 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 4¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129,332.10 · official $129,629.73 (match) · 3500 history records