Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d4c…2e02
sports · 1258 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$110,921 -49%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,090 · open −$96
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,496
Realized−$8,090
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses837 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$628
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1231 / 1258
History coverage39d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 29 History 1231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$383
7 days−$213
14 days−$2,509
30 days−$10,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $153 $166 +$14 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $160 $164 +$4 (+3%)
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $111 $96 −$14 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $87 $78 −$8 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $86 $74 −$12 (-13%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 81¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Under 88¢ 44¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-51%)
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Yes 47¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 54¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kaoru Mitoma score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 92¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 +$8 +26%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 −$36 -36%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $16 +$3 +19%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 +$14 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $101 +$21 +21%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Denmark (-2.5) Jun 08 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $101 +$23 +23%
Spread: Kosovo (-2.5) Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $51 +$84 +165%
Spread: Greece (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $50 +$9 +17%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $202 +$52 +26%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $100 +$18 +18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 +$13 +128%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $10 +$7 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Sierra Leone vs. Liberia end in a draw? Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$3,750
other 40% −$6,901
politics 12% +$2,789
crypto 0% −$383
world 0% +$156
weather 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 40m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 40m
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 44m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 44m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 45m
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 47m
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 48m
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $10 51m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 45¢ $65 53m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 53m
Will Kaoru Mitoma score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 58m
Will Kaoru Mitoma score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 59m
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $121 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $10 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 88¢ $50 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 68¢ $101 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 88¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Leroy Sané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 2h
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 3h
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 3h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 86¢ $100 13h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -19.6% -27.2% 51% 46% -17.8%
≤30d 881 -6.4% -15.3% 67% 44% -16.7%
≤90d 1231 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 45% -12.8%
all 1231 -5.6% -14.6% 68% 45% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 45% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 26% -21.1%
15% -30.3% 17% -28.7%
20% -37.1% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,495.84 · official $1,495.84 (match) · 3500 history records