Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2d4e…68cd sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$99 (-24%) realized −$98 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$94
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -25.3% -32.4% 35% 35% -33.4%
≤30d 18 -29.4% -36.2% 33% 33% -35.6%
≤90d 18 -29.4% -36.2% 33% 33% -35.6%
all 18 -29.4% -36.2% 33% 33% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 33% -35.6%
10% -42.3% 33% -41.8%
15% -47.8% 33% -47.4%
20% -53.0% 22% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ 56¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 41¢ 40¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $24 +$25 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $17 +$22 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $89 −$6 -6%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $31 +$16 +50%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $6 +$7 +114%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $16 +$8 +50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 +$4 +134%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $37 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $15 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $13 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $46 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $24 29h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $17 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $27 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 41¢ $22 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $83 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $6 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $16 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $9 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 66¢ $31 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $3 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $4 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $5 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $5 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $7 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $20 7d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $9 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $36 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ $12 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $53 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.30 · official $50.30 (match) · 40 history records