Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d51…d090 politics 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$2
other 12% $0
sports 8% $0
economics 8% $0
world 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage118d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $87 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $88 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $88 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $85 6d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $85 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $85 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $85 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 20d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 29d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $85 32d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $86 32d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 34d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 37d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 40d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 40d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 43d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 44d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $87 61d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $87 62d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $87 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $87 66d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $87 67d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $87 68d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $87 72d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $88 73d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 76d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 77d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records