Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d51…d971 sports 683 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,980 (+10%) realized +$10,980 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%422W / 261L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$905est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,205
7 days+$1,742
14 days+$3,555
30 days+$6,958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$10,204
other 5% +$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +42.8% +29.2% 64% 61% +13.5%
≤30d 150 +20.5% +9.1% 63% 61% +16.1%
≤90d 489 +6.7% -3.4% 61% 58% +2.4%
all 683 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 57% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 57% -0.5%
10% -13.2% 48% -10.1%
15% -21.6% 39% -18.8%
20% -29.3% 29% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$110 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,980
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses422 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$905
Open positions0
Markets (closed)683 / 683
History coverage133d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 683 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1,150 +$772 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $118 −$75 -63%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $205 +$85 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,118 +$1,136 +102%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,140 −$843 -74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $227 +$130 +57%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $120 −$100 -83%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $198 +$88 +44%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $373 +$112 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$161 +158%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $176 −$176 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $57 +$49 +86%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$94 +93%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $5 +$9 +172%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$27 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $224 +$300 +134%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$63 +473%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $402 +$37 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $273 +$165 +60%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $174 +$63 +36%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$62 +500%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $129 +$80 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $112 +$16 +14%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$33 +33%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $111 +$143 +129%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $306 −$306 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $151 −$151 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,165 +$1,945 +167%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $39 +$35 +90%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$26 +52%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $114 +$212 +186%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $98 +$16 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $127 −$127 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $166 +$59 +36%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $113 +$54 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 3¢ $43 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $290 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 92¢ $2,254 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 7¢ $118 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $205 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1,118 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 22¢ $297 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,140 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $227 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,921 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 0¢ $3 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $1,149 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 24¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $201 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 65¢ $100 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 61¢ $30 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 80¢ $85 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 63¢ $68 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $102 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $486 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 72¢ $373 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $263 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 38¢ $102 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $97 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 28¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $3 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 9¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1621 history records