Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d52…df50 sports 958 markets active 3h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$417 (-10%) realized −$411 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%327W / 610L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days−$115
14 days−$40
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$157
other 30% +$1
crypto 2% −$67
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 +1.4% -8.2% 25% 24% -15.6%
≤30d 489 -4.1% -13.2% 33% 31% -11.4%
≤90d 937 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 34% -14.6%
all 937 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 34% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 34% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 34% -22.8%
15% -31.5% 33% -30.2%
20% -38.2% 32% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$411
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses327 / 610
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions14
Markets (closed)937 / 958
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 937 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Ghana leading at halftime? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 388 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$24 +388%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 +$79 +210%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$40 +113%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 +$12 +226%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1116%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$32 +104%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $15 −$12 -81%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$7 -44%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Panama win Jun 17 $15 −$3 -22%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$26 +498%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$4 +216%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$103 +554%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$39 +296%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $12 +$21 +176%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$34 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $37 +$52 +143%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Arge Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 3h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $5 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 10¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $15 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $8 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY 9¢ $6 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $10 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 39¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $17 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $10 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Panama win SELL 10¢ $12 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 30¢ $5 8h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.76 · official $66.81 · 1838 history records