Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d54…8c38 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% $0
politics 35% $0
sports 14% $0
tech 7% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage106d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $82 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $82 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $80 14h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 24d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 25d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 30d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $80 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $80 37d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 41d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 41d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $81 46d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 46d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $81 51d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $81 52d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $82 72d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 73d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 73d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $82 76d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 76d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $82 81d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $82 82d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 98d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 98d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $82 102d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $82 103d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $82 105d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $38 105d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $44 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records