Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

2D 0x2d54…e01d crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,080per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$15

7 days+$19

14 days+$6

30 days+$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-50.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-14.1%	-22.3%	86%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	20	-39.9%	-45.6%	60%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	22	-45.4%	-50.6%	55%	0%	-9.5%
all	22	-45.4%	-50.6%	55%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.6%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-55.3%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-59.6%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-63.6%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,066) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -45% → late -45% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.11 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage34d

Avg bet$1,080

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18?	Jun 19	$2,073	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?	Jun 18	$2,073	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$2,069	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16?	Jun 16	$2,057	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11?	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	Jun 07	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Jun 02	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 29?	May 29	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26?	May 27	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$2,073	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	May 24	$2,070	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23?	May 24	$2,066	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	May 23	$2,062	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	May 23	$2,058	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	May 22	$2,054	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?	May 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 18?	May 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	May 16	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18?	BUY No	100¢	$2,073	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?	BUY No	100¢	$2,073	15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$2,069	26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,065	43h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,057	2d
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	BUY No	0¢	$4	11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	17d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 29?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 26?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,073	25d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,070	25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 23?	BUY No	100¢	$2,066	26d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,062	26d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,058	27d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,054	27d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	31d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.13 · official $5.13 (match) · 36 history records