Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d56…4737 other 268 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 254L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$45
sports 24% −$21
economics 8% −$8
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 2% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 268 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)268 / 268
History coverage138d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 268 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $428 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $314 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $319 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $157 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $772 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $974 −$3 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $342 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $504 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 4h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 4h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $10 5h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 8h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 12h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 17h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 19h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 20h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 21h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 30h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 31h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 33h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 34h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 35h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 36h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 40h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records