Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:55:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2d57…ce51 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43,545 (-84%) realized −$43,545 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,486per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,857
7 days−$2,130
14 days−$2,130
30 days−$2,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$42,816
sports 11% −$3,996
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.4% -37.9% 40% 20% -36.4%
≤30d 5 -31.4% -37.9% 40% 20% -36.4%
≤90d 5 -31.4% -37.9% 40% 20% -36.4%
all 8 -47.4% -52.4% 25% 12% -91.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.4% 12% -91.2%
10% ← realistic here -57.0% 12% -92.1%
15% -61.1% 12% -92.8%
20% -64.9% 12% -93.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$717 vs −$8,041 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43,545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage193d
Avg bet$6,486
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $3,261 −$3,222 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $1,378 +$69 +5%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 23 $512 −$326 -64%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $26 −$17 -66%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 28 $44,180 −$44,180 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1,008 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2,254 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,025 34h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,446 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,378 4d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes $186 4d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 46d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 46d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,995 181d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 61¢ $5,000 182d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 60¢ $7,697 185d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,797 187d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,200 188d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 55¢ $2,000 188d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 63¢ $4,899 190d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,100 190d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,376 191d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 48¢ $500 191d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 59¢ $420 191d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,700 192d
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 74¢ $9,996 193d
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? SELL Yes $4 193d
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes $5 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records