Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2d58…845f sports 144 markets active 1d ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$32 (+5%) realized +$43 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%30W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$44
14 days+$60
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$30
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +38.7% +25.5% 24% 24% +10.0%
≤30d 111 +3.7% -6.1% 26% 26% +3.1%
≤90d 111 +3.7% -6.1% 26% 26% +3.1%
all 114 +2.8% -7.0% 26% 25% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 25% +1.7%
10% -15.9% 25% -8.0%
15% -24.0% 25% -16.9%
20% -31.5% 25% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses30 / 84
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions30
Markets (closed)114 / 144
History coverage145d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$38 +368%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$101 +982%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +264%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$6 +596%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Azerbaijan vs. San Marino end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 34h
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 34h
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw BUY Yes 31¢ $10 34h
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 34h
Will Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 34h
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 34h
Will Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 34h
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 34h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 39h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 39h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 39h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 39h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 39h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 39h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 39h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 39h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 39h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 39h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 39h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 39h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 39h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 39h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 39h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 39h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.49 · official $262.49 (match) · 205 history records