Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d5a…0608 crypto 1190 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate78%922W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 +0.8% -8.8% 83% 37% -9.3%
≤30d 1188 -1.4% -10.8% 78% 39% -10.8%
≤90d 1188 -1.4% -10.8% 78% 39% -10.8%
all 1188 -1.4% -10.8% 78% 39% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 39% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 15% -19.3%
15% -27.1% 3% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses922 / 266
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1188 / 1190
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 95¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 2614 history records