Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2D 0x2d60…d7df weather 638 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$287 (-5%) realized −$284 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate48%295W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$10
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 2% -9.8%
≤30d 157 -8.0% -16.7% 87% 3% -11.9%
≤90d 301 -4.2% -13.3% 65% 21% -12.0%
all 620 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 23% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 23% -14.4%
10% -25.2% 19% -22.6%
15% -32.5% 16% -30.1%
20% -39.1% 14% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$284
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses295 / 325
Open positions17
Markets (closed)620 / 638
History coverage149d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? No 99¢ 86¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $17 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $25 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.81 · official $395.82 (match) · 1973 history records