Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:15:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d61…1fa7 world 316 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,784 (+6%) realized +$33,122 · open −$338
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate49%172W / 182L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,779per market
Trades / day42.1pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$46,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,300
7 days−$14,729
14 days−$14,111
30 days−$6,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$8,520
politics 17% +$4,849
other 13% +$5,618
finance 13% +$9,515
sports 7% +$438
economics 2% +$5,528
tech 1% +$916
culture 1% −$27
crypto 0% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -71.4% -74.1% 18% 7% -30.9%
≤30d 175 -37.8% -43.7% 37% 19% -12.0%
≤90d 354 -6.4% -15.3% 49% 31% -5.5%
all 354 -6.4% -15.3% 49% 31% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 31% -5.5%
10% -23.4% 24% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -30.8% 18% -22.8%
20% -37.6% 16% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$353 vs −$216 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$46,104
Realized+$33,122
Unrealized−$338
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses172 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions46
Markets (closed)354 / 316
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$1,779
Trades / day42.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 95¢ 96¢ $23,768 $23,906 +$138 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 70¢ $2,980 $2,820 −$160 (-5%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 81¢ 88¢ $2,142 $2,311 +$170 (+8%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 85¢ 93¢ $1,707 $1,859 +$151 (+9%)
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $1,601 $1,774 +$173 (+11%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 93¢ $1,451 $1,535 +$84 (+6%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 73¢ 88¢ $1,167 $1,399 +$232 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $1,293 $1,312 +$19 (+1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 65¢ 78¢ $1,040 $1,240 +$200 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 81¢ 78¢ $807 $775 −$32 (-4%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $686 $687 +$2 (+0%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 62¢ 62¢ $577 $577 −$1 (-0%)
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? No 64¢ 81¢ $452 $572 +$120 (+27%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $476 $476 +$0 (+0%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $380 $442 +$62 (+16%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 22¢ $745 $440 −$305 (-41%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 60¢ 84¢ $298 $418 +$120 (+40%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 36¢ 40¢ $362 $405 +$43 (+12%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 54¢ 80¢ $268 $397 +$130 (+48%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 56¢ 73¢ $280 $366 +$86 (+31%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $330 $347 +$17 (+5%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 67¢ 66¢ $336 $330 −$6 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 53¢ 60¢ $265 $300 +$35 (+13%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $240 $250 +$10 (+4%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison? No 67¢ 93¢ $167 $234 +$66 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Ass" be said 3+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode Jun 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during t Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "UFO" or "Alien" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Jun 25 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $150 +$203 +135%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026? Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and Jun 25 $134 −$134 -100%
Will England win? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026? Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Jun 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 24 be between 1,7 Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Jun 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Jun 25 $288 −$288 -100%
Will France win? Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister Jun 25 $361 −$361 -100%
Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curlin Jun 25 $155 −$116 -75%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16? Jun 25 $134 −$134 -100%
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Ne Jun 25 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Run Away" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "UFC History" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Jun 25 $210 −$210 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Jun 25 $73 +$481 +657%
Will "The Rip" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 27, Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "Black and White" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episo Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Jun 25 $37 +$84 +224%
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? ( Jun 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech? Jun 25 $261 −$261 -100%
Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 US Netflix show this we Jun 25 $3,374 −$3,412 -101%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 25 $1,482 −$1,482 -100%
Will Man I Need - Olivia Dean be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 25 $32 −$30 -93%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Jun 25 $273 −$273 -100%
Will "Hillary" or "Clinton" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Iran strike Oman again in March? Jun 25 $439 −$460 -105%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "The Grinch" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January Jun 25 $158 −$502 -318%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2 Jun 25 $30 −$10 -35%
Will "Prime Minister" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episod Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 27, 202 Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $240 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 88¢ $653 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL No 88¢ $1,107 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $260 3h
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31? BUY No 50¢ $8 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $1,880 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $2,835 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $2,850 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 27¢ $54 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 27¢ $0 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 27¢ $216 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $265 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $1,920 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $447 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $1,481 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $543 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $136 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $216 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $69 11h
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $808 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $967 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $1,938 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $1,942 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $730 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $1,946 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $30 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $710 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $750 13h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $2,065 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $1,950 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,103.82 · official $46,103.59 (match) · 3500 history records