Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d62…0a41 weather 964 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 307d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,672 (-4%) realized −$1,653 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate88%845W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$34
14 days+$90
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% −$107
other 11% −$793
sports 5% −$294
crypto 3% −$89
politics 2% +$55
world 2% +$55
tech 1% −$108
economics 0% −$102
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 94% 35% -2.8%
≤30d 97 +1.5% -8.2% 92% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 724 -8.4% -17.2% 86% 9% -15.0%
all 957 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 17% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 17% -12.8%
10% -20.1% 10% -21.1%
15% -27.8% 6% -28.7%
20% -34.9% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$29 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$1,653
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses845 / 112
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)957 / 964
History coverage307d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 957 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 95¢ $43 $52 +$9 (+20%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 18¢ 52¢ $15 $44 +$29 (+192%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? No 95¢ 94¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 17¢ 11¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-34%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $29 +$2 +6%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Jun 29 $28 +$6 +22%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $27 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 England? Jun 27 $27 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $25 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Jun 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Qingdao Hainiu FC 1 - 3 Yunnan Yukun FC? Jun 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $24 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: RS Berkane 1 - 1 AS FAR? Jun 25 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 25 $20 +$5 +23%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $22 +$1 +7%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $12 +$1 +10%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $16 +$2 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $120 +$20 +17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 +$1 +11%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $8 +$2 +23%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $9 +$1 +15%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $4 +$5 +103%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $87 +$131 +150%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $74 +$14 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $72 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $65 +$6 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$11 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$14 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $122 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $87 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $74 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $60 +$19 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $69 −$29 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$11 +56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $54 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 95¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $7 13h
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $11 13h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? SELL No 99¢ $17 13h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 14h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 14h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? SELL No 99¢ $17 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $29 14h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 4¢ $7 17h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY No 94¢ $27 31h
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 England? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Spain? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? BUY No 96¢ $24 3d
Exact Score: Qingdao Hainiu FC 1 - 3 Yunnan Yukun FC? SELL No 100¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: Qingdao Hainiu FC 1 - 3 Yunnan Yukun FC? BUY No 96¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY No 95¢ $24 4d
Exact Score: RS Berkane 1 - 1 AS FAR? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY No 80¢ $28 4d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 84¢ $25 4d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: RS Berkane 1 - 1 AS FAR? BUY No 93¢ $22 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY No 94¢ $9 5d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY No 93¢ $12 5d
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.73 · official $152.01 · 3500 history records