Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d64…8b88 politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$982per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$110
other 7% −$2
economics 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 26 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$970) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage72d
Avg bet$982
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $855 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,826 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,812 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,832 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,731 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $868 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $871 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,840 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $341 −$79 -23%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $956 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,930 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $969 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $970 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $854 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $855 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $854 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $856 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $855 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $856 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $856 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $857 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $857 17d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $859 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 22d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $864 26d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $865 27d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $865 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $866 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $863 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $866 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $868 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $867 35d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $868 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $868 37d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $869 37d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $869 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.47 · official $34.47 (match) · 104 history records