Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d66…aa07 sports 924 markets active 12h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$654 (-6%) realized −$654 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%534W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$29
14 days−$59
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$666
other 1% −$38
world 0% −$7
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.3% -19.7% 52% 52% -22.1%
≤30d 219 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 56% -18.7%
≤90d 769 -16.3% -24.2% 52% 50% -31.8%
all 924 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 56% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 56% -15.4%
10% -22.0% 49% -23.5%
15% -29.6% 41% -30.9%
20% -36.5% 31% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$654
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses534 / 390
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)924 / 924
History coverage163d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 924 Trades
no open positions (170 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Jun 18 $8 +$1 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $5 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$10 -48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$15 +287%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$9 +170%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$9 +63%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eagles Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$1 +33%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $5 +$3 +64%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $10 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$5 +155%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$8 +78%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner BUY JiJieHao 45¢ $5 12h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs SELL Fancy United 100¢ $8 12h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY Fancy United 90¢ $8 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $5 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $10 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 100¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 64¢ $5 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 67¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 29¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $9 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $6 4d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 50¢ $7 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 64¢ $5 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 51¢ $10 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $10 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $17 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 60¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $5 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $15 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 42¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 50¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 46¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 67¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 99¢ $20 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 54¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1808 history records