Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d67…c499 crypto 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+4%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%95W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$45
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +17.7% +6.5% 80% 41% +2.2%
≤30d 144 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 43% -6.9%
≤90d 144 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 43% -6.9%
all 144 -0.5% -10.0% 66% 43% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 43% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 31% -15.8%
15% -26.5% 23% -23.9%
20% -33.7% 19% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses95 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records