Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d69…7b8b other 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$13
politics 40% −$13
sports 8% −$29
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -1.6% -11.0% 3% 1% -9.6%
all 87 -3.7% -12.9% 2% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage117d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $479 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $225 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $214 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $222 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $298 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $485 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $293 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $490 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $534 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $496 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $281 $0 -0%
Will Danny Willett win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $221 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $208 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $298 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $308 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 41h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $107 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $107 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $148 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $148 31d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $130 35d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $130 39d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 45d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 45d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $197 45d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $197 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $270 46d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 46d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $236 46d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $236 48d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 48d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $225 48d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 48d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 48d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $264 49d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $264 49d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 49d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $287 50d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $212 50d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $212 50d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $281 50d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $281 51d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $249 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 261 history records