Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:51:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2d6a…4073 crypto 595 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,217 (-10%) realized −$5,804 · open +$587
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%181W / 406L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$6,417
sports 3% −$453
other 2% +$341
world 1% −$197
finance 0% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +13.5% +2.7% 29% 29% -2.7%
≤30d 54 -3.2% -12.4% 28% 28% -9.8%
≤90d 106 +3.8% -6.1% 32% 32% -16.6%
all 587 -11.6% -20.0% 31% 31% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 31% -22.8%
10% -27.6% 29% -30.2%
15% -34.6% 28% -36.9%
20% -41.0% 26% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$73 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$1,231
Realized−$5,804
Unrealized+$587
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses181 / 406
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions8
Markets (closed)587 / 595
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $242 $423 +$181 (+75%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 7¢ 22¢ $70 $220 +$150 (+214%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $56 $185 +$129 (+230%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $84 $159 +$75 (+89%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $53 $103 +$49 (+93%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $72 +$27 (+60%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $54 $44 −$10 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $25 −$15 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $42 +$249 +588%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$47 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$110 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $63 +$135 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$46 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $32 +$128 +403%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $13 +$24 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $131 −$93 -71%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $336 −$174 -52%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $57 +$40 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$47 -94%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $102 +$88 +86%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $408 −$399 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $68 +$171 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $21 +$84 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $47 −$45 -94%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $152 −$148 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $115 −$66 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $54 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $52 +$56 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 06 $291 +$476 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,231.37 · official $1,210.81 · 3440 history records