Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2D 0x2d6c…5c05 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$111 (+10%) realized +$98 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$98
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$101
politics 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +14.6% +3.7% 42% 42% +1.1%
≤30d 19 +14.6% +3.7% 42% 42% +1.1%
≤90d 19 +14.6% +3.7% 42% 42% +1.1%
all 19 +14.6% +3.7% 42% 42% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 42% +1.1%
10% -6.2% 42% -8.6%
15% -15.3% 42% -17.4%
20% -23.6% 32% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$25 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 66¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+24%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 51¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 40¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 +$76 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $81 −$40 -49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$23 -74%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 +$26 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$32 +79%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$68 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$47 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$1 -1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 55m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $31 55m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 16¢ $21 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $31 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $41 12h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $41 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 35¢ $29 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $39 12h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 49¢ $39 12h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 39¢ $48 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $41 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $25 15h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 17h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $41 17h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $64 17h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $30 20h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $51 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Morocco 100¢ $87 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 42h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $61 42h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $51 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $51 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 43h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.49 · official $199.50 (match) · 42 history records