Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d6c…e3f5
other · 725 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,760 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,219 · open −$538
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,231
Realized−$6,219
Unrealized−$538
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses179 / 431
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions114
Markets (closed)610 / 725
History coverage509d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 114 History 610 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$450
14 days−$565
30 days−$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $201 $194 −$7 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $201 $193 −$8 (-4%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? Yes 52¢ 30¢ $52 $30 −$22 (-43%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 67¢ 57¢ $34 $28 −$5 (-15%)
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 71¢ $31 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will Tuyo launch a token by March 31, 2027? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? Yes 65¢ 50¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-22%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-13%)
Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 64¢ 60¢ $26 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Yes 82¢ 48¢ $41 $24 −$17 (-41%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 41¢ 39¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? No 77¢ 72¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $20 $17 −$4 (-17%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? Yes 53¢ 34¢ $26 $17 −$10 (-37%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $155B by June 30? No 74¢ 41¢ $30 $16 −$13 (-45%)
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? No 80¢ 79¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 92¢ 30¢ $46 $15 −$31 (-68%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 74¢ $16 $15 −$2 (-10%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 74¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 34¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-51%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-52%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 74¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-16%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 66¢ $16 $13 −$4 (-21%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 94¢ 64¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $112 −$3 -3%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -3%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Jun 12 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $126 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $6 −$1 -8%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? Jun 12 $13 $0 -3%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Slingshot launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 12 $8 $0 -3%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 12 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 12 $64 +$1 +2%
FDA approves Unicycive's Oxylanthanum carbonate? Jun 12 $13 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -6%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 12 $45 −$4 -10%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? Jun 12 $60 $0 -1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 12 $61 −$3 -4%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 12 $21 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -40%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 12 $19 +$4 +19%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June? Jun 12 $32 −$1 -3%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $46 −$30 -66%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $166 −$1 -1%
Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Jun 12 $17 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $83 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$1,162
crypto 20% −$5,144
politics 17% −$288
world 13% +$13
tech 8% −$90
finance 6% −$52
sports 1% −$9
culture 0% −$25
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $10 5m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $7 18m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $0 19m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL No 55¢ $11 20m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 39¢ $29 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $3 1h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $10 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $2 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $10 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $0 1h
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 1h
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 39¢ $0 1h
Grok 4.4 released by July 31? SELL No 30¢ $0 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will Slingshot launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 38¢ $8 1h
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 1h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? SELL No 60¢ $0 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 in June? SELL No 70¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $1 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL No 66¢ $1 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL No 32¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -14.3% -22.4% 24% 6% -17.4%
≤30d 529 -8.8% -17.5% 29% 7% -13.4%
≤90d 596 -12.0% -20.4% 28% 7% -39.8%
all 610 -9.2% -17.8% 29% 9% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 9% -33.2%
10% -25.7% 5% -39.6%
15% -32.9% 3% -45.5%
20% -39.4% 2% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,231.25 · official $1,230.08 (match) · 3405 history records