Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d6e…9595 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 675d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$13
other 34% −$7
economics 11% −$2
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 83 -8.9% -17.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -25.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

675d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage675d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $58 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $59 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joe Burrow win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anfernee Simons lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings win the NFC Championship? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech? Dec 19 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 4-10 years in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa lead the EPL in points at midway point? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will Fred Warner win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b? Nov 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship? Nov 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 09 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 22d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 22d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 37d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 37d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 46d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 69d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 69d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 77d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 78d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $59 86d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $59 87d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 93d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 94d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 99d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 100d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 102d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 102d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 104d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 112d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 113d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records