Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d6e…38b8 crypto 92 markets active 5d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-10%) realized −$291 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$165
14 days−$172
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$366
sports 12% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -11.4% -19.9% 45% 45% -15.5%
≤30d 92 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 47% -19.8%
≤90d 92 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 47% -19.8%
all 92 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 47% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 47% -19.8%
10% -29.3% 46% -27.5%
15% -36.1% 40% -34.5%
20% -42.4% 35% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$33 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 49
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage16d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $109 −$104 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $142 −$137 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $77 −$74 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $64 +$62 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$39 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$81 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$50 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$18 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$60 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$53 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$74 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$44 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $83 +$75 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $109 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $142 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $77 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $76 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $64 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $89 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $62 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records