Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d6f…cc54 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-25%) realized −$55 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$7
weather 32% −$32
crypto 12% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-56.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 6 -44.3% -49.6% 33% 17% -25.2%
≤90d 6 -44.3% -49.6% 33% 17% -25.2%
all 7 -52.3% -56.8% 29% 14% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.8% 14% -32.8%
10% -61.0% 14% -39.2%
15% -64.7% 0% -45.1%
20% -68.2% 0% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage320d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 Wolves 79¢ 87¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 03 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin above $114,000 on August 1? Aug 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.03 · official $22.03 (match) · 15 history records