Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d73…9cae sports 22 markets active 6h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-43%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%5W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$4
world 39% −$15
other 20% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -33.1% -39.4% 23% 23% -50.4%
≤30d 22 -33.1% -39.4% 23% 23% -50.4%
≤90d 22 -33.1% -39.4% 23% 23% -50.4%
all 22 -33.1% -39.4% 23% 23% -50.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.4% 23% -50.4%
10% -45.2% 23% -55.2%
15% -50.5% 18% -59.5%
20% -55.4% 14% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 4+ shots Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran to win the second half? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 28h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $0 30h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 30h
IR Iran to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL No 20¢ $0 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $1 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $0 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 35h
Darwin Núñez: 4+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $1 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 SELL 30¢ $1 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $1 37h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 37h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 2d
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records