Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2D 0x2d73…9cae sports 6 markets active 14h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$4 (+44%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +75% what you keep after slip

Net edge+75%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+81.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+101.0%	+81.9%	100%	100%	+81.9%
≤30d	1	+101.0%	+81.9%	100%	100%	+81.9%
≤90d	1	+101.0%	+81.9%	100%	100%	+81.9%
all	1	+101.0%	+81.9%	100%	100%	+81.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+81.9%	100%	+81.9%
10%	+64.5%	100%	+64.5%
15%	+48.6%	100%	+48.6%
20%	+34.0%	100%	+34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +101% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +101% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	No	67¢	80¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+20%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	68¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	61¢	62¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Over	46¢	46¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Sweden to win the second half?	Jun 15	$4	+$4	+101%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$1	14h
Sweden to win the second half?	BUY Yes	49¢	$4	14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$1	14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$1	14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	67¢	$1	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $5.17 (match) · 7 history records