Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d74…cfb2 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$973 (-6%) realized −$973 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%39W / 98L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,397
7 days+$937
14 days+$668
30 days+$690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$480
sports 24% −$1,120
world 4% +$1,053
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -73.5% -76.0% 14% 14% +39.1%
≤30d 60 -19.9% -27.5% 35% 35% +3.7%
≤90d 68 -18.1% -25.9% 34% 34% +9.4%
all 137 -17.4% -25.2% 28% 28% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 28% -7.2%
10% -32.4% 28% -16.1%
15% -38.9% 28% -24.2%
20% -44.9% 26% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$93 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$973
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses39 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage148d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,134 +$1,397 +123%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$239 +388%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 −$150 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $71 +$42 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $81 −$73 -90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $132 +$113 +86%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 +$88 +124%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$65 +129%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $81 +$109 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $204 −$49 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,531 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 37¢ $118 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,016 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $42 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $71 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 6d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 6d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $51 7d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $61 8d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 8d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $103 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 10d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 11d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records