Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d76…717d sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$192 (+2%) realized +$123 · open +$69
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$705now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$853
7 days−$1,017
14 days−$1,029
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$385
sports 23% +$376
crypto 13% +$102
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 33% -22.7%
≤30d 22 +5.9% -4.1% 64% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +5.9% -4.1% 64% 45% -9.4%
all 22 +5.9% -4.1% 64% 45% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 45% -9.4%
10% -13.3% 32% -18.1%
15% -21.7% 27% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 18% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$701) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$220 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$705
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage28d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 76¢ $636 $705 +$69 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $705 −$59 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $500 +$204 +41%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,399 −$1,399 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,297 +$102 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $441 +$31 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $113 −$44 -39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,176 +$135 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $998 +$179 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $266 −$130 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$28 +136%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $15 −$12 -80%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $219 +$53 +24%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $701 +$348 +50%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 07 $204 +$15 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $201 +$5 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $165 +$36 +22%
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldi Jun 03 $99 +$66 +67%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $416 +$285 +68%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $115 +$282 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $645 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $645 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $705 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $500 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,399 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,297 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 80¢ $243 40h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 65¢ $172 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 30¢ $69 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 73¢ $199 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $113 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,176 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $998 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 48¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $68 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $67 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 15¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 43¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 40¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $61 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $15 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $223 14d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $951 14d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 BUY Under 4.5 38¢ $50 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 78¢ $50 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $219 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $705.21 · official $705.21 (match) · 57 history records