Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d78…f923 other 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$986 (+18%) realized +$913 · open +$73
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate62%215W / 132L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$152
14 days+$277
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$537
crypto 23% +$8
world 6% −$7
sports 2% −$4
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$1
weather 0% −$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +28.7% +16.5% 67% 44% +5.6%
≤30d 166 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 20% +4.8%
≤90d 347 -7.9% -16.7% 62% 20% +1.9%
all 347 -7.9% -16.7% 62% 20% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 20% +1.9%
10% -24.6% 10% -7.9%
15% -31.9% 7% -16.8%
20% -38.6% 4% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,046
Realized+$913
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses215 / 132
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)347 / 372
History coverage82d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $98 $138 +$40 (+41%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $117 $130 +$12 (+11%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $92 $105 +$12 (+13%)
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 48¢ 55¢ $80 $91 +$11 (+13%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 84¢ 68¢ $101 $81 −$20 (-20%)
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $91 $79 −$12 (-14%)
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $48 $70 +$22 (+46%)
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 37¢ 45¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $35 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-13%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 51¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-35%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 11¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+100%)
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $97 −$68 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 14 $158 +$23 +14%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $112 +$10 +9%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 13 $241 +$139 +58%
Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $45 +$16 +36%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $163 +$25 +15%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $206 +$8 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $105 +$39 +38%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 10 $37 −$3 -8%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $90 +$45 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will RISE launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 06 $111 +$50 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 06 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 -16%
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $1 $0 +36%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $1 $0 +18%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Jelle Sels Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $1 $0 +38%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $1 $0 +17%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 4? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 4? Jun 03 $0 $0 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 4? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -15%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 20m
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 21m
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 22m
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 11¢ $1 36m
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 21h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $1 26h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $1 26h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $1 27h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 29h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 33h
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $101 33h
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $55 33h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $2 34h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 11¢ $6 44h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 11¢ $0 44h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 11¢ $5 44h
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes $29 45h
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes $34 45h
Ventuals FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $63 45h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? SELL No $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? BUY No $2 47h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $4 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 10¢ $1 2d
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL No 11¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 2d
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 2d
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 2d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY No 11¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,045.51 · official $1,048.90 (match) · 1057 history records