Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d78…e5c9 weather 129 markets active 17h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$422 (+33%) realized +$427 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%42W / 86L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$44
14 days−$33
30 days+$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% +$460
world 11% −$16
other 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +122.1% +100.9% 33% 25% +38.7%
≤30d 53 +78.2% +61.2% 30% 26% +11.7%
≤90d 128 +33.8% +21.0% 33% 27% +3.8%
all 128 +33.8% +21.0% 33% 27% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 27% +3.8%
10% +9.4% 24% -6.1%
15% -1.1% 22% -15.2%
20% -10.8% 19% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$427
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses42 / 86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage71d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$48 +179%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$36 +558%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$10 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $41 +$54 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $93 −$89 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $36 −$18 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$9 +857%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 −$11 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$10 +411%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 29? May 30 $1 +$9 +963%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 28? May 28 $51 −$46 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 28? May 28 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 26? May 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 25? May 25 $26 −$21 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $17 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $10 +$513 +4998%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 24? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 23? May 24 $49 +$26 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 23? May 23 $21 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 23? May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on May 21? May 22 $20 +$30 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 22? May 22 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on May 21? May 21 $15 −$2 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $30 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 528 history records