Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d78…5c35 weather 396 markets active 1d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-5%) realized −$71 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%173W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$5
14 days−$44
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% −$12
sports 19% −$36
politics 9% −$51
other 9% +$7
crypto 4% −$10
tech 2% +$14
world 1% +$7
finance 1% +$3
culture 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 57% -7.9%
≤30d 363 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 47% -16.1%
≤90d 363 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 47% -16.1%
all 363 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 47% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 47% -16.1%
10% -19.8% 47% -24.1%
15% -27.6% 41% -31.5%
20% -34.7% 31% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses173 / 190
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions33
Markets (closed)363 / 396
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 23¢ 97¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+317%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 24¢ 98¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+300%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 Week of June 22 2026? No 33¢ 90¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+169%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? No 58¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? No 60¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? No 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 22 2026? No 50¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+96%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? No 75¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 60¢ 94¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 56¢ 93¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+66%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? No 54¢ 89¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+65%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of June 22 2026? No 49¢ 88¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+81%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 31¢ 66¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+115%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 86¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+86%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 73¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? No 52¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 47¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? No 59¢ 49¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No 62¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? No 54¢ 30¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 54¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Yes 64¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 29¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $3 +$2 +88%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 25 $2 +$3 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +72%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 25 $3 +$2 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +33%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +113%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 +$3 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 23 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +149%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $2 +$6 +300%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +51%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $2 +$4 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$3 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June BUY No 62¢ $3 26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $3 26h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 26h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 33¢ $2 26h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,260 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 49¢ $2 26h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 63¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 63¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $3 27h
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? BUY No 52¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 60¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 58¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $3 27h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 51¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 52¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? BUY No 65¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY No 59¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? BUY No 53¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 64¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 58¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 50¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? BUY No 57¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 67¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $4 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.04 · official $95.04 (match) · 594 history records