Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d79…f2a9 politics 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 38% −$14
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$53
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 114 -3.3% -12.5% 3% 2% -9.6%
all 126 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 5% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×18.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage115d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $372 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $233 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $185 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $373 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $343 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $170 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $143 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $418 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $339 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $320 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $383 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $368 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $318 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $171 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $135 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $131 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $129 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $340 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $175 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $192 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 24 $160 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 17h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 17h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 23h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 23h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $19 10d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 11d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $167 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $167 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $142 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $142 24d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $166 24d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $166 25d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $170 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 420 history records