Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d79…7588 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$7
other 27% +$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 20% -6.9%
≤30d 19 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 11% -8.5%
≤90d 19 +2.3% -7.5% 63% 11% -8.5%
all 40 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 8% -8.5%
10% -16.6% 2% -17.3%
15% -24.7% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage468d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 +$4 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $72 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $36 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $37 +$1 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Dec 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $12 $0 +3%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $16 $0 +3%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? Mar 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 09 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $8 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $32 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $7 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $9 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $21 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $22 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $22 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records