Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2D 0x2d7c…a9b9 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$117 (+2%) realized +$108 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$659
other 42% −$583
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 38% -8.0%
≤30d 26 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 38% -8.0%
≤90d 26 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 38% -8.0%
all 26 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 38% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 38% -8.0%
10% -35.0% 38% -16.8%
15% -41.3% 38% -24.8%
20% -47.1% 19% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$76 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,503
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions7
Markets (closed)26 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 62¢ $1,320 $1,331 +$11 (+1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 $0 -8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $164 +$87 +53%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $12 −$10 -86%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $6 −$2 -27%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 −$1 -4%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $81 +$45 +56%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $853 +$388 +46%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $66 −$65 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$15 -49%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $31 −$16 -51%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $353 +$161 +46%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $964 −$964 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $687 +$375 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $353 +$161 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $31 25m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 28m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $52 29m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 34m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $32 34m
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $30 35m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 35m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 39m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $20 40m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $21 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 46¢ $81 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $324 2h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $1,011 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 10h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes $2 11h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 11h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 11h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $4 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $20 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $21 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $21 12h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $6 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 12h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 56¢ $61 15h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 44¢ $19 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,503.28 · official $1,583.28 · 68 history records