Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d81…fe57 world 369 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,166 (+8%) realized +$4,251 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%222W / 128L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$506
7 days+$500
14 days+$856
30 days+$1,514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$38
other 18% +$635
culture 16% +$858
politics 12% +$6
tech 6% +$596
crypto 4% +$623
sports 1% +$93
weather 1% −$22
finance 0% +$28
economics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -19.0% -26.8% 47% 29% -4.4%
≤30d 155 -11.4% -19.9% 58% 41% -3.6%
≤90d 350 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 44% -4.0%
all 350 -5.5% -14.5% 63% 44% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 44% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 25% -13.2%
15% -30.2% 15% -21.5%
20% -37.0% 10% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$35 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,165
Realized+$4,251
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses222 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions20
Markets (closed)350 / 369
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 30¢ 37¢ $167 $204 +$37 (+22%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $201 $201 −$0 (-0%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 64¢ 84¢ $112 $148 +$36 (+32%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 61¢ 71¢ $86 $99 +$13 (+15%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $84 $89 +$5 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 66¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $60 $68 +$9 (+14%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+7%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 19¢ 79¢ $12 $48 +$36 (+312%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 37¢ 72¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+93%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 58¢ 51¢ $37 $32 −$5 (-13%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 75¢ 98¢ $22 $28 +$7 (+31%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $10 $20 +$9 (+89%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 61¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-28%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes 86¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-75%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 37¢ 19¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 36¢ 91¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+149%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 50¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,544 +$24 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,738 +$445 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,672 −$54 -3%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $315 +$87 +28%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +7%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $280 +$59 +21%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$9 +169%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $103 +$141 +137%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $132 −$75 -57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $321 −$145 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $422 +$13 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $1,233 +$306 +25%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 $0 -31%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $79 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $221 −$95 -43%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 15 $103 −$3 -3%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 15 $129 −$63 -49%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $40 +$28 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $54 +$6 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $22 +$13 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $68 −$5 -8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $208 +$22 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $49 −$37 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $53 +$8 +14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$7 +46%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $373 +$32 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $23 +$8 +35%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $364 +$65 +18%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $538 +$173 +32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $40 +$7 +17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $162 +$134 +83%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $654 +$35 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $4 11m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $80 13m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $21 13m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $72 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $71 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $25 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $24 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 89¢ $2 12h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 89¢ $1 13h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 89¢ $34 13h
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-2 BUY Yes 95¢ $201 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? SELL No 89¢ $5 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $66 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $3 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $3 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $4 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $38 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $14 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $2 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $15 31h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $1 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $1 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $20 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $1 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $1 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $10 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $8 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $2 33h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,165.37 · official $1,165.38 (match) · 3500 history records