Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d82…d508 crypto 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-1%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%92W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$155
14 days−$146
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.3% -20.7% 86% 0% -23.7%
≤30d 36 -1.3% -10.7% 97% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 86 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -10.9%
all 95 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -10.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$58 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses92 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage103d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $168 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $165 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $160 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $156 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $153 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $152 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $150 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $140 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $82 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $73 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $72 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $70 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 0¢ $0 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $170 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $2 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $140 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $168 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $165 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $160 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $157 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $156 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $156 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $153 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $152 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $150 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $150 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $50 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $97 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $50 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $105 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 95¢ $40 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $3 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $40 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $100 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 98¢ $40 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $140 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $89 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $89 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $88 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.11 · official $42.11 (match) · 196 history records