Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d86…18f8 crypto 504 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$234 (-4%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%262W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$50
14 days−$257
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 47% -10.7%
≤30d 466 -3.6% -12.8% 55% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 504 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 42% -14.8%
all 504 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 42% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 42% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 27% -23.0%
15% -30.3% 19% -30.4%
20% -37.2% 9% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses262 / 242
Open positions0
Markets (closed)504 / 504
History coverage48d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 504 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$7 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3023 history records